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@Pentosh1 · full time larp
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
16
Top 84% · #19 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
34
0 pending · 14 unresolved
Hit rate
43.8%
7 correct / 9 incorrect · 18 neutral
Avg 7d return / call
-1.23%
Avg return per call (7 day horizon)
Following every call
-41.9%
Equal stake on all 34 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-1.52%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (36) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 21% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 45.7% | 39 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −61.7% | 70 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.52% | 18 | 25% |
By month resolved · 7 days horizon
87 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“So here is a little bit of framework thinking on bitcoin:native Is the bottom in? Maybe. A great sign of course is one of the most reliable signs of all time. That it stops reacting to negative news. We aren't quite there yet. The downside imo is prob 48k ish. So, nothing real crazy for spot people at this point. The other aspect to consider is this entire time, its trended down. So we've really yet to see any basing, time capitulation, or accumulation period, or real ranging. We typically see that in crypto for a decent length of time where volatility dies off and we trade in some 2% range that makes everyone want to neck. The same can be said for the majority of the market. For alts. You have to keep in mind it's the first cycle that alt coin market didnt make a new all time high. and you also need to keep in mind that the returns you use to see in alts, are now in stocks. 10, 20-50x etc returns. It is a fact, that each cycle has diminished returns in crypto. And this will be a later more detailed post. Which is the same one that i made at the end of the last cycle. You kind of have to ask, how will alts steal the flows from tradfi, ai, energy, robotics, medical. bc thats what they have to do. And a tall order. They have to fight something real, and tangible. Will that happen? idk, and if it did, what would the scale of it be? But we are getting to a point where most things are likely within 20% of a bottom. broadly speaking.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 65.4% |
55 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.12 | 18 | 25% |
All time · 7d
“@jellysmithrave @saylor not bearish long term on btc at all. its going to a milli one day. idk when that day is tho”
“no trade, is often the best trade 1. No higher high or HL 2. no long sideways accumulation period 3. Price still in a technical down trend 4. No reclaims 5. Price is in the middle of nowhere, there is no historical previous support or range at that price = no triggers. Not to mention borrowed conviction is the worst kind of conviction and even with all the marketing etc, it didnt even make a new local high from the prior week I get it, people love it, it is actually a great blockchain. That can't be argued. The discussion though is the price action. And there is a time and place and things you want to see happen. There is a cost to taking each trade right now which has been the greatest bull run in history. You want to make sure that if you are taking a trade, you are getting paid for the risk you are taking.”
“$BB earnings is coming up and we are entering the potential dip zone I had outlined 2 weeks ago. I'll be a buyer this next week All the signs so far are hinting at a pretty strong earnings, at least from previous public statements and guidance in terms of growth. So the moment of truth is here. My plan is to hope to end up with some free shares. The portion that I buy, I will likely sell if we have a strong rally into earnings, and after. Then keep the net difference at 0 cost. Just fyi”
“@gainzy222 so cursed lmao i wouldnt be surprised to trade there or a bit lower some time this year”
“@GOLDEN_DQM @Globalflows each time the floor gets set higher bc of simple dynamics DEMAND > SUPPLY”
“@GOLDEN_DQM @Globalflows IF btc does that maybe but here is todays spot twaps the float is disappearing at 10m+ a day so there is less supply to get there each time people sell/ short and shorts must always be closed. they are always forced buyers https://t.co/oP2DxOXtJ9”
“$PURR will be buying a lot more hype, they are like a second AF. This was likely them last night as it fits previous patterns, today another strong day for them. A lot of supply absorption from them and the AF Its not if, but when. Time just has to do its work, and price will get to the destination”
“A lot of people i've talked to really for some reason just haven't considered how much flows have gone to AI and how much that has taken away from crypto. There are the 3 things you mentioned as net sellers. But you also had OG's cashing out hundreds of thousands of btc at 115-125k as well. and even when you talk to them, they think it's just a bubble it will come back. or that that bubble has to pop. there has been a lack of adjustment, or slow adjustment crypto is mostly a speculative asset. obviously there's a lot of speculation in AI but its far more in it's infancy than crypto. so money flows will more than likely be > there than crypto over the next several years as a whole the robots dont even exist yet for example. the ai energy/data center buildout isn't complete yet. these things are years in the making.”
“idk fren bc each case is unique different time horizons, risk tolerance, style of investing and trading I think it's fair to assume that a few things can be true. BTC is probably still a great long term play. btc is probably great value at these levels on a long enough time horizon but btc also right now lacks attention and allocation and that will probably be the case for awhile in terms of performance vs other assets. you have to decide how to balance all of those things. i can't do it for you or anyone else. I try to be like water as much as possible.”
“$BB now 57% from first entry at 5.79 I don't plan to touch this one regardless of what price does, bc I think the earnings next month is going to confirm the thesis and FA laid out previously. No, price won't move in a straight line, but it will eventually reach the destination I think over several years, it rerates materially higher. I think the fundamentals of it are off the charts.”
“$DGXX Finally looks ready to break out after a period of consolidation. Going to give both the bull and bear case so you can evaluate for yourself. They have a $CBRS deal. A 10yr, $1.1B agreement that gives them a multi-year revenue runway. All they have to do is execute partially. They are debt free. they OWN generation. In an AI buildout where power is THE bottleneck, owning 60MW+ with a 1.3GW Loi The are pre rev, and the prev earnings left a lot to be desired but that was PRIOR to the CBRS deal. Which materially changes everything. Again, as long as they execute. Right now, power is the constraint more than chips. A few things. These things take time to play out. The buildouts will be years in the making in general.”
“The dip coming a bit sooner than expected. I nibbled a bit here at $55.5, but would ideally like the opportunity to add big in the low 50's for $HYPE. IF we get it. Which idk if we will or not Of course, price wont move up in a straight line but the fundamentals have never been better and price discovery likely continues over the next few weeks. It just depends on your time frame. Some people think about where hype might be in 3-5 years, and some people think about 3-5 days. I think about both. if price is down even 1%, i wonder if my idea is invalidated, how could i be so stupid. if its up, I know im a fucking genius. Today I have been both, stupid, and a genius. I also began a small position in $LIT. Down 20% on the day, would expect a decent recovery there. Not that these two are remotely the same thing.”
“$BB obviously up big today. A few reasons for that. One, they are generating huge free cash flow now, and the guidance set is that will continue. They also are doing a 5% share buyback, so there's no dilution risks to investors. Physcial AI, Robotics, NVDA partnership, medical, QNX being used in both Autos and the military like submarines with defense contracts. Robotics is currently viewed as a 4T market which they are going to play a role in. Large rev growth last year at 78% margins. I think in the next 1-2 years this is trading several multiples higher. Also @crypto_condom was the reason I originally got in the trade so the credit should go there for spotting this so early.”
“@hswinters13 @AltcoinMami No. Btc imo eventually infinity”