@blknoiz06 · coldest nigga breathing | @BullpenFi @MarketBubble
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
5
Top 95% · #10 of 10 ranked
Scored calls
18
1 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
38.5%
5 correct / 8 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg return / call
-5.00%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-90.1%
Equal stake on all 18 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
-5.70%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (18) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 11% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 27.8% | 21 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −116.2% | 14 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -5.70% | 7 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
23 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@insomniacxbt btc/xxx pairs are going to do well imo”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 80.0% |
59 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.48 | 3 | 25% |
30 days · stated
“i'm leaning toward a more aggressive bull market than most people are expecting a lot of crypto natives were waiting for the usual four-year cycle to play out, but the market may be getting driven by a different group of buyers this time traditional finance is starting to treat BTC as a long-term portfolio allocation, while profitable crypto businesses are attracting attention beyond the usual crypto crowd if institutional capital keeps flowing into both BTC and onchain businesses, i think there's room for this cycle to surprise people on the upside”
“80k key support level stop run + retest $1B in longs liquidated cpi + ppi extremely bad & no bearish follow through, + bond yields *down* anthropic rev numbers have nothing to do w/ btc pain trade is up, nobody holds any bitcoin https://t.co/xl09ohBCRY”
“memory top mags bottom purely off vibes & charts, but im sure there will be some fundamental analysts who provide substantive reasoning for this shift in the next few months said a few weeks ago thought memory bottom was in, think that is wrong now, was expecting HL into ATHs aug 2025: $META $760 $MU $100 oct 2026: $META $760 $MU $940”
“@umar_xbt up, up a lot”
“long $BTC entry: $82k stop: $74.6k target: ATHs https://t.co/nm039lKNjv”
“stone bottom https://t.co/hk7VfjT7Qc”
“another reason why i am so bullish bitcoin here last cycle it did not even make a new ATH against gold, if you believe in the thesis that $BTC is the best form of digital hard money then the gap between $BTC & $XAU is going to continue to close gold is $30T, btc is $1.7T & the closer this gap gets the more it makes sense for governments to hold bitcoin on their balance sheets the same way they do with gold”
“@ParallelAiRev they ignored me when i flipped bullish eth but now they see the vision, multi-cycle dev shipping novel tech at intersection of ai x crypto x speculation, will always get bid by the eth whales”
“@andyyy 10T is first target for bitcoin”
“@divotends_ 🩵”
“you thought onchain was hot now imagine when $SOL is > $200 & $PUMP is > $0.01 100x opps otw 😳”
“i can tell you now from experience you are going to overtrade if you spend your time on the 15 minute chart checking price action daily separate your spot account from your perps account from your onchain degen account it is detrimental to your returns to try to catch every local top & local bottom go study past bull markets, look at how long much uptrends last, for altcoins you can be more aggressive because their trends are usually faster, 4-6 months of outperformance and then new leader usually emerges, especially if it goes 10x+ on size, but there will be rare cases this cycle where alts actually become stronger investments as they go up because their revenue will also meaningfully increase, will be important to update your thesis with the changing information, prior cycles alts topped purely on attention shifts & momentum dying out but insti capital will continue to aggressively bid these coins in certain cases where there is real data that changes the outlook last cycle bitcoin bottomed in jan 2023 & topped in october of 2025, that's ~ 33 months of uptrend, if bottom is in for this cycle which i believe it is, we just bottomed in july, its only month 4. during the longer bull market there will be mini bull markets where certain alts outperform, it is your job to identify these alts & compound your winners into long term investments good luck 🐂🀄️”
“it is mispriced by 20x no exaggeration https://t.co/8datYagC1Q”
“thoughts on onchain ---- onchain bottomed before majors moved & we've had a few 9 fig runners past few months, good sign that ppl are going risk on again & retail is coming back ansem cashcat ai marscoin niu lai pons & stonk all topped at few 100Ms on first push, pons slightly higher as it caught some traction as a launchpad burning substantial % of token supply, i believe we are currently in the most important accumulation phase for onchain coins at the beginning of the bull market, it is the time period in which most still have bear ptsd, but there is growing group of interested capital adding fresh dollars to crypto + devs building again, & eventually these accumulation ranges lead to new highs across the board and are the most profitable trades for most retail as the bull market starts, ansem top holders have been mostly adding into volatility, will lead the first wave of onchain alts again IMO am betting that we see a lot more creative experimentation with what ppl decide to do with tokens this cycle, & a lot of focus on how to use retail's interest in speculation on building something more sustainable & incentivizing larger attention flywheels, launchpads are so popular because this is effectively what they do, they turn the trading volume generated from ppl interested in getting 100,000x returns on tokens into revenue towards one asset, i dont think we've seen the end of trading volume as a battery for powering new token economies at scale but i would be extremely dismayed if all we got this cycle was just more launchpads pure-play memecoins im conflicted on, reason being that the new token pairs game is so solved atm, there are serial deployers, snipers, new pairs trenchers who are all operating at scale trying to make $1000 1M times instead of holding something that launched at 0 to billions of dollars in market cap, this is a distinctly different environment than the one that existed last cycle when pepe, bonk, & wif all ran to 5B+, there was not 30k coins launching daily & when runners spawned there was a much higher tendency to bid what was moving than to look for a replica at 1/10000th the price, collective belief is currently very rare, & even rarer when most ppl refuse to bid coins above certain levels, & i dont think the token creation game is going to slow down at all, pump's revenue numbers during the bear market are a clear indicator of this ive coined the term "memefi" sofar this cycle as a way to describe people combining memetics with the innovative speculation games devs cooked up during defi summer in 2020, & i still believe this is the general direction onchain coins are going this cycle, im very bullish on NFTs making a comeback, & im very bullish on communities aligning and gambling amongst each other, crypto is cool because it enables devs to build in public and share the upside with tokenholders, devs using the newest ai models are going to keep getting better and better while retail is going to continue to speculate more and more, the combination of these two things makes it easy for me to believe that being an active trader onchain will be a great place to be over the next few years the coins that reach multi-billions need to find a way to manifest collective belief amongst a large group of holders again, & that usually happens when you create something that people have never seen done before so they don't have any ceiling to compare it to”