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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 11 more calls to rank
Scored calls
4
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
66.7%
2 correct / 1 incorrect · 1 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.44%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+1.7%
Equal stake on all 4 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
+0.26%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (62) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 25% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 65.4% | 73 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.8% | 73 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.26% | 65 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
1 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@BittexXBT the guaranteed free saturday short”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 60.0% |
31 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.27 | 62 | 25% |
30 days · 4h