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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
21
Top 79% · #17 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
44.4%
4 correct / 5 incorrect · 14 neutral
Avg return / call
-0.68%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-15.5%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.89%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (39) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 43.8% | 36 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −42.0% | 79 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.89% | 33 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
47 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“best way to express this is micron calls”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 55.6% |
45 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.17 | 18 | 25% |
All time · stated
“micron is worth more than bitcoin https://t.co/M2cSHtscbw”
“LIVE: Bitcoin To ZERO!!! Quantum IPO Is CRAZY! Can Trump Save Us?! SpaceX! AAAAAAA JOIN on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/KErnKZ7wiM”
“LIVE: Bitcoin Is Going To ZERO!! Jensen Pumps MRVL, Stocks Are HOT! Trump Is MAD!? Join on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/L3pm6DBiJj”
“the entire bitcoin narrative has pretty much unraveled”
“we should all just long bitcoin for the bit why not”
“@aishdesign yes. 126k hype in the cards imo”
“@swansonbenson0 leverage eth (the worst asset of all time) 🚀”
“everybody hates michael saylor until alts are breaking out and bitcoin starts rejecting when there's nobody left to buy”
“bitcoin not falling off a cliff and dying while alts look incredible and ready to respark hope into crypto would be too easy”
“when saylor doesn't buy 100mm of bitcoin every hour it goes down in a straight line”
“assuming it goes up in a straight line looks pretty shit if not”
“hype flips ibkr, zcash/privacy reprices to 100bn+ (1/5th mc added by google last friday) and bitcoin returns to ath and it feels like an absolute raging bull market even better if all the money consolidates into decent stuff”
“everyone that got rich in semis/ai/metals/sk will buy our trash for absolutely no reason makes no sense BUT everyone that got rich in semis/ai/metals/sk will buy our good coins that matter and serve a purpose; btc, perps, privacy, stables(?), and they get asymmetric pumps with asymmetric flows makes some sense to me”
“raging bull market in the few coins that actually matter. flows consolidate. bitcoin staircases higher. saylor sells and nothing happens. the rest of the trash continues to be trash. btc dominance down only. why not”