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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
16
Top 84% · #19 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
140
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.7%
71 correct / 69 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.03%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-3.7%
Equal stake on all 140 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.05%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (33) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 31% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 49.8% | 45 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.8% | 39 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.05% | 12 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
324 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially now deviated -6% below the 200-week SMA (orange) The 200-week SMA after all tends to act as an unreliable support at this moment in the market cycle More, history suggests that this deviation will go even lower over time $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/qyvdyBIhk1 https://t.co/hd4Goe4JYd”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 96.4% |
85 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.11 | 9 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“Welcome to new Bitcoin lows for 2026 $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC If Bitcoin Quarterly Closes below $59k (green) then both $59k and $62.4k could act as resistance in early Q3 Bitcoin is currently at $58.7k $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/TS0tYYUe7i”
“#BTC Bitcoin is already slipping below the red support once again, after mustering a very weak +1.5% bounce Daily Close below the red area and/or followed by a bearish retest from the underside would likely kickstart the breakdown process $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/zNcNa8F9hO https://t.co/nvlBd7xEHh”
“#BTC Bitcoin is safe from downside - for now Price has Daily Closed above the early June lows, postponing an immediate breakdown to new lows However, if the rebound from here ends up being lacklustre then the breakdown option will once again be in play Why? By virtue of the red support being a progressively weakening one After all, recent rebounds from red produced a +5.5% bounce and then a +10.5% rebound If this upcoming bounce is lesser than 10%, then that will be a sign of weakening support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin on the Quarterly timeframe showcases a picture of old major supports turning into resistance, one by one All resistances are in red The $59k level is the only support at this time (green) A Quarterly close beneath $62.4k could see that level flip into resistance in Q3 to impose sell-side pressure on $59k and force it into a break $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Let's see if Bitcoin Daily Closes below these mid-June candle-bodied lows Daily Close beneath the red area followed by a post-breakdown bearish retest could confirm further downside sooner rather than later $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/tKa7PrcaTg https://t.co/xxA3083beD”
“#BTC Bitcoin resumed its downtrend $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ABPuYIs9Vi https://t.co/HAojMq7hW1”
“#BTC February lows have been confirmed as new resistance A new Weekly Close below $63.2k would likely confirm another set of new Lower Highs $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/HFDnawhviN https://t.co/5vIevifrYR”
“#BTC Bitcoin has almost fully retraced whatever bounce price mustered this June $60k is clearly weakening as support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/5wSa4mYBxB https://t.co/D2ypIPy3ou”
“#BTC The answer is that the 200-week SMA will likely not hold as support for too long Historically, Bitcoin tends to deviate substantially below the 200-week SMA in an effort to build out a bottoming out formation $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/zQG3yFSyyd https://t.co/ybWTkpjX4X”
“#BTC Bitcoin Head and Shoulders has played out Breakdown confirmed $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/9PvVe8OBUa https://t.co/2hQJjwJHb9”
“#BTC $60k is weakening as support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/D2ypIPy3ou”
“#BTC As it stands, here's what the path for the Summer could look like: - Monthly Close below the 50Month EMA (purple) - Bearish post-breakdown retest of the 50 EMA into new resistance (scope for brief upside wicking beyond the EMA on retest) - August cancellation of relief and additional downside due to $60k weakening as support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“@Truecrypto Agreed. Though even if somehow BTC Monthly Closes above the 50M EMA, price would still likely form another Lower High before a potential breakdown from the EMA”