Rekt Capital

“#BTC Bitcoin keeps rejecting from the Lower High resistance (black trendline) In fact, today's Daily candle upside wicked beyond it, only to reject again More, Bitcoin keeps Daily Closing inside the orange support region and rejecting from the top of it The Weekly Close will take place in a few hours and so consistent rejecting from this Daily Lower High (black) would force price into a Weekly Close below $82500 Such a Weekly Close would position Bitcoin for a potential bearish retest of ~$82500 into new resistance And if that bearish retest occurs successfully then it could set price up for a drop below $80k within the next few weeks $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Interestingly, the two EMAs (purple 50-week EMA & green 21-week EMA) are converging and slowly building confluence in the mid- to high $70,000s Over time, this confluence will occur at higher prices given the dynamic nature of the EMAs More, a Golden Cross is set to occur over the next several weeks Historically, whenever a pullback has taken place into the two EMAs in early Bull Markets, the pullback bottom would not be too far off, especially whenever deviations below the EMAs would occur After all, successful retesting of the two EMAs in new Bull Markets has sustained bullish momentum for price $BTC #Bitcoin”

“$LIT - Lighter In the absence of bullish confirmation via a Weekly Close above the red Range High resistance... Lighter was always going to remain range-bound here (black square) As a result, additional consolidation to as low as the Range Low is a possibility #BTC #LIT #Lighter”

“#BTC It's always very tempting to just assume Bitcoin will go on and produce -30% pullbacks in Bull Markets After all, deeper pullbacks afford better prices for entries But it's not about the pullback depth we desire but about the pullback depth that is reasonably probable based on where Bitcoin is in the cycle Take the previous 2022-2025 cycle: Bitcoin only saw over -30% retraces in the Post-Halving period Pre-Halving retraces were much shallower, just over -20% each time Early-stage Bull Markets offer shallow pullbacks but those pullbacks are great opportunities for the long-run $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin has successfully post-breakout retested its Macro Downtrend into new support In doing so, it is technically transitioning from Downtrend into new Macro Uptrend All Bitcoin needs to do going forward is to stay above the Downtrend and/or retest it as support if any deeper pullbacks take place Historically, Bitcoin has more often transitioned into post-breakout Re-Accumulation Ranges (e.g. 2019 & 2023) than gone for Downtrend retests (i.e. 2015) Of course probabilistically, there's a higher chance of Bitcoin developing a newfound post-breakout Re-Accumulation Range in the future in what is technically shaping up to be an early-stage Bull Market but it's worth keeping an open mind to both scenarios After all, since breaking the Macro Downtrend, future pullbacks are likely to take place in the context of Bull Market retracements Which significantly alters the risk side of the equation as opposed to risk in Bear Market Relief Rallies as downside during Bull Market pullbacks tend to be limited before further upside is confirmed $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin has officially broken to new Macro Higher Highs, invalidating the series of Macro Lower Highs that persisted since October 2025 When a Macro Downtrend ends, a new Macro Uptrend begins $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Slowly, that weakness is translating into Bitcoin's price action The Daily Bearish Divergences have affected price The RSI Lower Highs have persisted (purple) Bitcoin has lost the $77k level (orange) and is developing a brand new micro Lower High on price (black) And the multi-month RSI Higher Low (blue) is in danger of confirming a breakdown If the RSI bearish retests the Higher Low into new resistance (orange circle), that could very well confirm additional downside over time $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC "If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA" Already, price action is forming an upside wick beyond the 50-week EMA (purple), solidifying a potential bearish retest here If this continues, the breakdown from the EMA will be confirmed EMAs like the 50-week EMA tend to hold as support in Bull Markets and act as resistance in Bear Markets Thus, price struggling to hold the EMA as support just demonstrates that the trend is not yet conclusively "Full Bull" $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to positioning itself for a repeat of May 2026 price action (red circle) Bitcoin needs a Weekly Close above ~$78300 (blue) to avoid May history from repeating $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/xZpgixgVma https://t.co/XiEoJ77GMF”

“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a bearish Weekly Close below the 50-Week EMA (purple) Of course, there are still a few more hours left until the Weekly Close occurs so things could still easily change But if the Weekly Close occurs just like this and then the 50-week EMA is turned into new resistance afterwards... There'd be a very similar situation to what happened when price initially retested the green 21-week EMA support but ultimately broke down from it weeks later (red circle) Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market So if they can't hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin continues its positioning below ~$78300 which is the Weekly level that price needs to successfully retest as support to move higher At the moment, price is below this level, prepared for a Weekly Close below, which resembles May 2026 Such a Weekly Close followed by a bearish retest would likely send price lower $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC Bitcoin has generally maintained these highs over the past few weeks Each time rebounding from ~$77k (orange) into Daily Higher Highs but each time also returning right back into this same $77k level, regularly retracing any gains made (a sign of price weakness) Meanwhile, the RSI has developed two Lower Highs, signalling mounting weakness, strengthening the Bearish Divergences Of course, while as RSI dwindles it is getting closer and closer to the Daily Higher Low on the RSI (blue) which is going to be a potential RSI support worth monitoring in the future Overall, if Bitcoin loses its Daily Price Higher Low (black) and $77k Daily support (orange) then the Bear Divs will validate and this provisional Daily Double Top will activate All about the $77k level on the Daily and the $78300 level on the Weekly and whether they can continue to sustain support amidst signs of mounting weakness $BTC #Bitcoin”

“#BTC At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/p2byeo3R1n https://t.co/upWuzpGObA”