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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
Caller Score
8
Top 92% · #17 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
65
0 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
35.4%
23 correct / 42 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 24h return / call
-0.41%
Avg return per call (24 hour horizon)
Following every call
-27.0%
Equal stake on all 65 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.39%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (21) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 42% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 36.4% | 3 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −32.7% | 31 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.39% | 9 | 25% |
By month resolved · 24 hours horizon
23 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below ~$82200 Technically, this now positions price for a bearish retest of this level into new resistance Bitcoin would need to reclaim this level on the lower timeframes to start removing the bearish bias instilled by this latest Weekly Candle Close This level represented the May 2026 highs (red circle) and a key level for upside continuation in early 2025 (green circle), rendering it a pivotal reaction point for price $BTC #Bitcoin”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.18 | 6 | 25% |
90 days · 24h
“If #BTC performs a Weekly Candle Close below ~$82500 that would raise concerns of a fake-breakout from the $60k to $80k Macro Range for Bitcoin Especially if ~$82500 is then bearish retested back into resistance $BTC #Bitcoin”
“$LIT - Lighter In the absence of bullish confirmation via a Weekly Close above the red Range High resistance... Lighter was always going to remain range-bound here (black square) As a result, additional consolidation to as low as the Range Low is a possibility #BTC #LIT #Lighter”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Monthly Closed above ~$82500 for September Which means Bitcoin will likely try to retest this level into new support this month A successful retest there could set up the next trend continuation History suggests this retest could get messy but let's take it one level at a time and not look too far ahead $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC It's always very tempting to just assume Bitcoin will go on and produce -30% pullbacks in Bull Markets After all, deeper pullbacks afford better prices for entries But it's not about the pullback depth we desire but about the pullback depth that is reasonably probable based on where Bitcoin is in the cycle Take the previous 2022-2025 cycle: Bitcoin only saw over -30% retraces in the Post-Halving period Pre-Halving retraces were much shallower, just over -20% each time Early-stage Bull Markets offer shallow pullbacks but those pullbacks are great opportunities for the long-run $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has officially broken to new Macro Higher Highs, invalidating the series of Macro Lower Highs that persisted since October 2025 When a Macro Downtrend ends, a new Macro Uptrend begins $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC "If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA" Already, price action is forming an upside wick beyond the 50-week EMA (purple), solidifying a potential bearish retest here If this continues, the breakdown from the EMA will be confirmed EMAs like the 50-week EMA tend to hold as support in Bull Markets and act as resistance in Bear Markets Thus, price struggling to hold the EMA as support just demonstrates that the trend is not yet conclusively "Full Bull" $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is indeed rebounding right into the most recently lost old support of ~$78300, potentially as part of turning it into new resistance Turning this level into new resistance would confirm the breakdown that the latest Weekly Close kickstarted Invalidation starts with a reclaim of ~$78300 back into support $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the 50-week EMA (purple) Technically, this could set price up for a bearish retest of the 50-week EMA into new resistance That said, at this very moment price is trying to reclaim the EMA If this price action ends as an upside wick by the end of the week, this will have been a bearish retest to confirm the breakdown from the 50-week EMA $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin continues its positioning below ~$78300 which is the Weekly level that price needs to successfully retest as support to move higher At the moment, price is below this level, prepared for a Weekly Close below, which resembles May 2026 Such a Weekly Close followed by a bearish retest would likely send price lower $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The retest of ~$78300 is now in progress $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/qvqvadVvr4 https://t.co/upWuzpGObA”
“#BTC Every time Bitcoin produced a fake-breakout (red circle) from a price cluster (orange), price would revert back to the cluster And whenever that would happen, Bitcoin would Weekly Close beneath the Cluster Low and bearish retest it into new resistance to confirm additional downside (blue circles) Should Bitcoin reject at its Macro Downtrend and local top here at ~current prices... Then bearish retesting either of the levels located in the future blue circles ($72400 & $66200) would confirm additional downside lower Bearish retest of $72400 could send price into the high mid-$60,000s And bearish retest of $66200 could send price into the low $60,000s $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin would enjoy aggressive buy-back at the 200-week SMA in July but that aggression is no longer evident this month Which ties in with what I mentioned 1.5 months ago: "The SMA could act as support in the short-term to enable limited upside relief this July before failing as support mid-term" Bitcoin indeed enjoyed support in the short-term from 200-week SMA in July but it appears that support is faltering this August $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The volume is worth noting as well Last week's Weekly Candle occurred on below-average buy-side volume but has been almost completely cancelled on by noticeably lesser seller volume Sellers can move the price by the same amount but on less volume $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/c9jZVUSQK9 https://t.co/NvZHxEEyQk”
“#BTC Bitcoin has already retraced the majority of last week's candle-bodied move, which puts the orange level in an increasingly tough spot to continue acting as support The orange level may very well be weakening as a level of buy-side interest $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/E6uNNmaBag https://t.co/nr3VJgufJe”