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@scottmelker · The Wolf Of All Streets | The Daily Wolf On @YahooFinance | Media Host | Author | Markets | Hot Takes | Bitcoin | Married up to @emimelker ALL CAPS = news team
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
48
Top 52% · #12 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
38
0 pending · 1 unresolved
Hit rate
51.6%
16 correct / 15 incorrect · 7 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.01%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-0.2%
Equal stake on all 38 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.02%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (54) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 5% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 50.2% | 61 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −3.5% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.02% | 39 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
7 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Dave on his Bitcoin volatility thesis "My thesis is Bitcoin is an option on its own adoption. It will therefore trade pretty much the same as tech companies that are at the leading edge that trade on a power law adoption." "If Bitcoin trades as an option, then it's gonna be much more volatile. People expect levels of returns that are very different than they do for mature assets." "Andy made a point, which is very reasonable. Except it's wrong. Until Bitcoin trades like gold in terms of volatility and tracks inflation, people aren't gonna invest in it like gold." "It's a chicken and egg problem. Bitcoin won't trade like gold unless it's trading at higher prices at a much higher market cap relative to gold. So don't expect it to trade that way until it gets there." "In order to get there, it has to be dramatically more volatile. Not gonna 10x with less volatility. That's literally impossible."”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 66.7% |
58 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.04 | 42 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“"This is actually a bear market business. You're one of the few people that's probably exceptionally well positioned while Bitcoin is trading here, near a bottom" "This would be much worse if you did it and Bitcoin was at 126 and dropped to 50" "But anyone you convince to participate in this now, if you believe that Bitcoin will rise out of this as it always has in the past, you're gonna get a massive benefit from doing it now and watching that Bitcoin go up instead of go down"”
“Why Ethereum is catching a real tailwind right now "Ethereum looks like it's poised to outperform here, at least all the way up to this area, and probably higher. There's a lot of tailwinds after Vitalik came out with his capitulatory messaging on the ETH foundation and we're just another node. Obviously you've got BitMine out there and Tom Lee and all these guys" "Let's be honest, you can be bearish on ETH all you want, but Robinhood chain is a layer two on ETH, and I think people are probably discounting how important Robinhood chain is. They have tens of millions of users who now can just click a button, not really know they're doing crypto stuff, and do crypto stuff" "Memecoins are exploding there again, predicted. I think it's going to probably become one of the major competitors"”
“Oh… and Bitcoin could just… go up. https://t.co/kTyTvqwG9s”
“Bitcoin keeps getting stronger. Ethereum keeps falling behind. https://t.co/dBBgCUO5cU https://t.co/TLOfOX0Tfm”
“$BTC trying to confirm a hidden bullish divergence to cancel that bearish divergence. https://t.co/DWF379XeCc https://t.co/2Obos7Ftmo”
“$250,000 $ETH depends on something unrealistic: total dominance. https://t.co/DiH0bqjYxN”