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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
75
Top 25% · #6 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
5 correct / 4 incorrect · 6 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.24%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+3.6%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.23%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (66) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 58.0% | 70 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −3.3% | 76 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.23% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@Dirindin533 @BlockHorizonIO Bitcoin is indeed far off any model right now (e.g. also far below powerlaw). IMO it does not mean all these models are "broken" or "not working", it does mean that bitcoin is extremely undervalued.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 37.0% |
21 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.29 | 79 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k? Look at the October column. Uptober is loading.🎃📈 https://t.co/ltCDf9TaXD”
“Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉 Nobody knows if this is THE bottom... But history shows: 🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities 🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA 🔵They go up: ~$250 → ~$4k ~$4k → ~$20k ~$20k → ~$60k Interesting times ahead!👀 https://t.co/zTv21qEjIM”
“🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin is in profit right now. How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone? It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bull cycle begins. History is clear on what happens next 👀 https://t.co/uPeVuzpHd9”
“Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market. Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023. What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇 https://t.co/LUFUNLblV6”