CrediBULL Crypto

“I have a feeling our macro $ETH bottom at $1,500 is going to look very similar to our macro $BTC bottom at $15,000... https://t.co/lfWIhYpClB”

“Not sure if we will get that relief rally first as the local range lows (blue) are taking quite a beating atm without much of a positive reaction. Sweep of the $1500 lows might be coming sooner rather than later and this might end up forming a clean little PO3. ethereum:native”

“@AlexLongneck It does make sense sir: https://t.co/BSuom5rW2X”

“If total supply being HODL'd wasn't the highest it has ever been (see here: https://t.co/xMTylrM1rp), I'd say yes. But in this case I think the more likely outcome is some further chop from $BTC (but ultimately new all time highs) and the beginning of some level of alt-coin outperformance. The key is that this new "strategy" from Saylor keeps things in check as long as $BTC price keeps rising (or stays relatively flat), and with supply so constrained there are solid arguments that we won't go much lower. The one potential massive forced seller that the market had to worry about has just alleviated immediate concerns and known sources for added/increased sell pressure of BTC at current levels are few. So, as a function of the low float alone, unless some of these long term holders get spooked by this news (which they shouldn't, because prior to this news things were a lot worse and they didn't sell then either) I think $BTC ultimately has new highs on the horizon sooner rather than later, even if we chop about a bit before getting there. On the other hand, if/when the market does finally top and turn, which will coincide with a large % of the currently cornered supply being distributed to weak hands at the highs (as is always the case), look out below... By that point my guess is Saylor's average cost on $BTC will be much higher (because he will keep buying on the way up) and because $BTC price will shift from ranging/rising to a secular downtrend, the forced selling that he has put off for now, will finally come into play. Except at this point, a majority of the circulating supply of Bitcoin won't be concentrated into the hands of diamond HODL-ers but rather euphoric, short term speculators (as is the case following major market expansion phases), and so the combination of these two factors will lead to a downward spiral that will usher in the first secular bear market in Bitcoin's history.”

“@MoneyDuke2035 I think there are plenty of arguments to support my view aside from the lack of a blow off top... https://t.co/Iu5er3QrO7”

“ETH/BTC still not at our range lows so still think a sweep of the lows at $1504 is likely (and I think that's where we bottom, avoiding our HTF inval level at $1385) but can see an argument for a relief rally to around $1700 first. Mindful of both scenarios with interest in a potential long on a sweep of that $1504, if/when it comes. ethereum:native”

“@Freedtrader @BPC5550123 Yes actually looking for a potential long off this sweep: https://t.co/9zc3JYdmaJ”

“@BPC5550123 I think it's in and looking for a higher low here but will be dependent on BTC to some extent. FWIW also think BTC might make another wick below 58 but also think it is forming a bottom here too.”

“The post in the quoted tweet was from when Bitcoin was trading at ~$27,000, before our run to 100k+. At the time, many were adamant that due to the "4 year halving cycle" we would not see new all time highs (65k+) until AFTER the halving in April of '24. The consensus at the time was that we should expect chop/sideways action until the halving, and then a post-halving run up to new all time highs after (like "every time before"). At the time I was confident we would see new all time highs SOONER than most were expecting, that the "5th wave" to 100k+ would occur BEFORE the halving, not after. Part of the reason for this was market structure based, but I also noted that LTHS (long term holder supply) had reached record levels at 70+%, and I explained why this would lead to a price rise higher and faster than most were expecting. Fast forward a few months and the aggressive/impulsive rise was well under way leading to new all time highs BEFORE the halving leaving many in disbelief during the rise along the way. Today, LTHS has hit NEW record highs, with 16.6M Bitcoin being HODL'd, accounting for nearly ~80% of total supply. If we consider that around 1M Bitcoin have yet to be mined, this 16.6M figure amounts to around ~83% of all circulating Bitcoin. Again, the HIGHEST recorded amount of Bitcoin being HODL'd in history. This is very similar to the situation that we had at 27k- panic sellers had dumped all they could from the prior highs at 65k, forced sellers sold all that they could, a new cohort of buyers accumulated all that dumped Bitcoin, and Bitcoin supply became the most constrained it had ever been before. This meant that when buyers did finally actively step in, we shot back up to prior ATH much faster than most were expecting. There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now. This does not mean we can't go lower, theoretically if we were to get another LUNA/3AC situation where a portion of these HODL'ers become forced sellers more supply could technically come onto the market- but this would be an exception to the rule (HODL'ers typically sell into price rises, not dips) not something we would expect is most probable but rather least likely. And even if this were to occur- it would only just delay the inevitable rise, the same way our breakdown from 30k in 2022 due to forced selling from LUNA/3AC/FTX did not derail (but only delayed) the rise to 100k+. Ultimately, a secular (think 5-10 year) bear market does not occur when 80% of supply is being diamond-handed. It occurs when long term HODL'ers have sold much of their supply to short term speculators (typically as price goes parabolic) who panic sell (rather than buy) to other "weak hands" as price collapses in on itself- leading to a long, drawn out "death spiral" after which point long term holders once again step in at a deep discount to absorb all the supply they sold much, much higher. In other words, odds are that a bottom is closer than most think, and barring a black swan event that forces the hands of some HODL'ers, price will recover faster from this point than most are expecting- just like we saw in '23/'24 when conditions were similar. $BTC”

“ETH/BTC is still chilling at our HTF buy zone, so now looking for a LTF base to form that could signal the start of our HTF reversal. For now, watching this LTF range that sits in our HTF buy zone, looking for a sweep of the lows and a nice base to form. $ETH https://t.co/5RZJxKGchj https://t.co/6YlYBwxAEG”

“Managed to exit this position essentially at entry after we came close to inval but saw some relief before breaking our LTF level down. Was flying back from Singapore so didn't get a chance to update here at the time. For now, I am still interested in looking for a potential long on ETH/USD, but I want to see a proper base form on ETH/BTC first ( fresh chart will follow this post) before another attempt. For now, the fresh supply in RED that led to our LTF breakdown is our key resistance zone. I don't think we break through it on the first attempt.”

“Is it possible? I mean I guess anything is technically possible. It’s it likely though? No, not at all imo. What typically precedes a secular bear is an equal and opposite reaction in the other direction- aka irrational greed, euphoria, etc which is visualized as a parabolic/blow off top on a chart. We haven’t got that on crypto yet, so it’s unlikely we have reached the stage where a secular bear market is likely. Also worth noting, LTHS (aka the amount of Bitcoin being HODL’d/accumulated has reached an all time high- probs somewhere around 80+% of all BTC in existence. Meaning when excess supply is constrained at the highest levels it has ever been, float is low, so when a bit of demand comes into the market prices will rise aggressively. A secular bear is more likely to occur when a large chunk of the 80+% of BTC that is being HODL’d by long term holders has been distributed to short term holders who lack conviction to hold during corrections (sending us lower than most would expect, for longer- aka secular bear).”

“@simplyyjavii__ Yes. 40 level on HTF often marks bottoms. https://t.co/L4IxpVm8cg”

“@floppyx I think the XRP/BTC pairing goes a bit lower first, but agree after that. Easy.”