Loading…
@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
21
Top 79% · #17 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
21
5 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
41.7%
5 correct / 7 incorrect · 9 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-2.13%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-44.6%
Equal stake on all 21 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-1.24%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (31) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 5% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 47.2% | 21 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −97.0% | 70 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.24% | 18 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
51 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
““But the instrument stops working as intended.” I can’t speak on Saylor’s behalf, but I believe that is the intention. Below par = no new issuance. Again, I think it’s an elegant design. It’s a self-repairing mechanism. When STRC isn’t at par: effective yield goes up, there is buy pressure from captain gain seekers, and no new obligations incurred.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 60.9% |
55 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.11 | 15 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“@david_eng_mba I would agree it’s fragile if they had to defend it. But there is no peg and nothing to defend. If it trades below par they don’t buy BTC from it, that’s all.”
“$STRC is a brilliant instrument. It’s effectively what I tried to do with Bitcoin Bonds: strip out the volatility from Bitcoin and share the upside with investors. There is a massive market for a product like this somewhere in the ballpark of $200 trillion. There’s nothing structurally wrong with the design of STRC (or SATA, MARS, etc.) unless you think Bitcoin won’t appreciate in the long term, which I’m sure none of us do. Can STRC trade for under $100? Yes, of course it can. It moves freely according to market forces (this drop was caused by some leveraged plays). Do some people panic when it’s below par? Probably. That’s the behavior of short-term capital. However, when STRC is trading below par, that’s an opportunity for long-term capital to arb it. It’s the same case as when stablecoins like USDt (note STRC is not a stablecoin) are trading below their peg. It presents an opportunity for people to come in and earn money by buying it at an effective discount and redeeming for $1. It happens all the time. STRC pays the same dividend whether you bought it for $90 or $100. Long-term capital will absorb any below-par STRC like a dry sponge. Keep in mind that STRC is not even a year old. It’s still a baby, albeit one that’s growing at an incredible pace. It seems fashionable to dunk on it these days, but it’s far too soon to say it doesn’t work. Remember, the goal is to strip out the volatility from Bitcoin to package it into an instrument for investors who aren’t necessarily seeking out Bitcoin. This isn’t a year-long project. It’s a decades-long initiative that requires a massive balance sheet to shock-absorb. And that’s exactly what @Strategy has.”
“$STRC is a brilliant instrument. It’s effectively what I tried to do with Bitcoin Bonds: strip out the volatility from Bitcoin and share the upside with investors. There is a massive market for a product like this somewhere in the ballpark of $200 trillion. There’s nothing structurally wrong with the design of STRC (or SATA, MARS, etc.) unless you think Bitcoin won’t appreciate in the long term, which I’m sure none of us do. Can STRC trade for under $100? Yes, of course it can. It moves freely according to market forces (this drop was caused by some leveraged plays). Do some people panic when it’s below par? Probably. That’s the behavior of short-term capital. However, when STRC is trading below par, that’s an opportunity for long-term capital to arb it. It’s the same case as when stablecoins like USDt (note STRC is not a stablecoin) are trading below their peg. It presents an opportunity for people to come in and earn money by buying it at an effective discount and redeeming for $1. It happens all the time. STRC pays the same dividend whether you bought it for $90 or $100. Long-term capital will absorb any below-par STRC like a dry sponge. Keep in mind that STRC is not even a year old. It’s still a baby, albeit one that’s growing at an incredible pace. It seems fashionable to dunk on it these days, but it’s far too soon to say it doesn’t work. Remember, the goal is to strip out the volatility from Bitcoin to package it into an instrument for investors who aren’t necessarily seeking out Bitcoin. This isn’t a year-long project. It’s a decades-long initiative that requires a massive balance sheet to shock-absorb. And that’s exactly what @Strategy has.”
“I’ve never been more bullish on Bitcoin. https://t.co/4gvxuO5V4g”
“I will be bullish enough to compensate for the bears. https://t.co/MeChjkFtUt”
“I remain bullish on Bitcoin.”
“TL;DR: You just made a ton of money from investing in bicycles. You’re not going to plow it back into more bicycle correlated investments. You’ll look for something attractive (good value), uncorrelated, and with huge upside.”
“The liquid AI money will seek out Bitcoin. Fixed 21M supply vs infinite dilution. Global adoption, halvings, ETFs. Not earnings or AI capex. Low correlation. Not gold either. It took decades to reach these levels and it’s still not that far off ATH. Bitcoin still hasn’t had its run up yet and is massively undervalued.”
“@BTCTimescom @Strive @_ALCPB I remain bullish.”
“Buying under $75k is such an opportunity.”
“There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.”
“It’s quiet. Too quiet. Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is in its most bullish setup ever. Plan accordingly.”
“Fear is a real bitch. https://t.co/8oxPDheDqW”
“Strategy didn't buy Bitcoin for a week and then announced they would sell some Bitcoin, and now we're going higher. https://t.co/crMZaVIWa6”