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@RaoulGMI · Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 9 more calls to rank
Scored calls
6
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
25.0%
1 correct / 3 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-1.15%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-6.9%
Equal stake on all 6 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.74%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (11) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 25.8% | 16 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −7.1% | 31 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.74% | 6 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
6 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“We've got to the phase where the servicing of debt is everything and recessions or market collapse collapses are not allowed. The answer is to turn on the printing press via the central bank balance sheet or other measures of liquidity. We learned that in 2020 because an indebted system cannot allow the collateral to collapse, but yes, acceleration in liquidity usually requires stress but once you understand this, you understand that stress is the opportunity and not the risk, that's when you buy everything Essentially, the big left tail has been removed from markets. All they have to do is devalue the denominator and assets go up”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 30.8% |
9 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -1.39 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · 1h
“My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co/EvwnVW2q03”
“for the first time, all of this thinking can be found in one place. My first book, The Everything Code is out Nov 3rd. You can pre-order it now: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl”
“This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation https://t.co/ih4nBuPh9J”
“https://t.co/XlamGJSU77”
“Everything I just described is part of the frameworks I have spent years building. The Everything Code maps debasement. The Exponential Age maps the acceleration of our world. The Economic Singularity is where they both lead. If you want to understand why I hold through all of it, you can go deeper on all of them at: https://t.co/xRbqMfGgLE”