Loading…
@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
89
Top 11% · #3 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
23
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
63.6%
7 correct / 4 incorrect · 12 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.35%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+8.0%
Equal stake on all 23 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.33%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (80) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 62.6% | 85 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.33% | 79 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
47 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“bitcoin is about to start printing green candles nobody thought was possible anymore https://t.co/0cziXuxG6F”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 63.0% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.40 | 91 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“i find it hard to believe the universe will allow michael saylor to be the richest person on earth so i’m betting on the global sovereign bitcoin arms race by longing, to the gills, a memecoin launchpad on solana your move, china”
“MARKET OPEN: Crypto RETURNS to a RAGING BULL MARKET, BITCOIN is BACK, Memory Bros Are BUYING OUR COINS Join on twitch to chat link below https://t.co/1bZQftgPUt”
“@amitisinvesting hood as leveraged btc (but only to the upside)”
“buy the dip short the vix and fuck bitcoin guys in shambles”
“time for the guaranteed bitcoin leg down < 50k that’s guaranteed to happen for absolutely no reason”
“but absolutely zero chance we go up, it is impossible, zero. no way. because of “reasons””
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”
“"The two crushing narratives for BTC were stocks going down and Saylor selling. Both of those are happening at the same time and and we're going up." https://t.co/LkvDLwbGUI”
“@lbexplorer bro 8 months?”
“cheering for btc to pump so i can make money on dogshit alts”
“long bitcoin instead of gold into a generational bull market after 10/10/25 is similar tbf”
“bitcoin is the only trump asset down from where he started shilling. saylor capitulating into americas buys would make a poetic bottom https://t.co/tTO1mnvZjD”