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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
75
Top 25% · #5 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
5 correct / 4 incorrect · 6 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.16%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+2.4%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
+0.18%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 7% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 58.1% | 69 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 91 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.18% | 56 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“i feel like if they're going to really kill bitcoin today is the day”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 84.6% |
56 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.20 | 78 | 25% |
90 days · 4h
“@tulipking @botblastcap it’s fun to agree with tulip king when you have the same coins, really fun. sol to $2”
“with that being said, super clear bitcoin might never be under 80k again after it breaks again good luck”
“bitcoin is about to start printing green candles nobody thought was possible anymore https://t.co/0cziXuxG6F”
“but absolutely zero chance we go up, it is impossible, zero. no way. because of “reasons””