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@notthreadguy · i go live at 8:30am est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
Coverage 23 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
75
Top 25% · #5 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
5 correct / 4 incorrect · 6 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.16%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+2.4%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
+0.18%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 7% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 58.1% | 69 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −1.9% | 91 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.18% | 56 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
6 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@BittexXBT the guaranteed free saturday short”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 84.6% |
56 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.20 | 78 | 25% |
90 days · 4h
“would make sense if bitcoin never ticks green ever again after that”
“seeing this chart on the feed at resistance is not ideal https://t.co/ZfRxeIYLlm”
“@amitisinvesting hood as leveraged btc (but only to the upside)”
“@ThinkingUSD bro not right now”
“lowkey bitcoin isn’t going higher than ore if it was deployed today”