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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
7
Top 93% · #21 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
140
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
40.0%
56 correct / 84 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.13%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-17.8%
Equal stake on all 140 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.17%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (21) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 31% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 37.9% | 3 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −23.9% | 30 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.17% | 9 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
324 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“You survived the -84.5% #BTC Bear Market in 2018 You survived the -63% $BTC crash in March 2020 You survived the -53% BTC crash in May 2021 You survived the -77% BTC Bear Market in 2022 You'll survive this 2026 Bear Market as well #Crypto #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 96.4% |
85 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.20 | 3 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“#BTC In Bear Markets, every rally ends as a Macro Lower High Every price cluster develops a range of Re-Distribution Old supports turn into new resistances But at some point, Bitcoin will finally find a Bear Market Bottom and a new Macro Uptrend will emerge Every advance will register a Higher High Every price cluster will develop a range of Re-Accumulation And old resistances would turn back into new supports The Bear Market is over 70% complete Not long left before Bitcoin finally turns macro bullish for the next few years $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has deviated below the 200-week SMA, proving how unreliable a support this SMA can be In saying that, it's important to also mention that the 200-week SMA can also act as an unreliable resistance in the early phases of such a macro deviation Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside After that and over time however, Bitcoin would once again breakdown from the 200-week SMA to perform a deeper macro deviation below it to search of the final Bear Market bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) represents the ~$66000 price point for Bitcoin $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/SJgAJhykG0 https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“$USDC Dominance is on the cusp of retesting its Macro Downtrend (red) Successful retest there would likely precede a local top for Bitcoin's price action Because a successful retest for #USDC Dominance would enable further upside (Macro Risk-Off) #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/fSwqxwcm6H https://t.co/S8yGf5psWX”
“#BTC It's Green July and history suggests Bitcoin will be looking to turn the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/Zn3KEAeKqI https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Almost 3 months later and Bitcoin has most recently dropped to new lows for 2026 $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ML5awGmPbL”
“#BTC The game plan is now under way Bitcoin is currently relief rallying towards the 50-Month EMA (purple) in an effort to fully confirm the breakdown In other words, Bitcoin is repeating price action from the Bear Market Summer of 2022 $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/hJKvYORoy1 https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“$USDC Dominance is dipping right on schedule Meanwhile Bitcoin's price enjoys upside in this relatively short-term macro risk-on climate However, BTC's relief rally would probably end once USDC Dominance successfully retests the red Macro Downtrend as new support #BTC $BTC #USDC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin indeed rejected from the Macro Triangle Base Bitcoin indeed broke down from the purple 50-Month EMA And once Bitcoin turns the 50 EMA into new resistance on this relief rally, it will likely enter additional Bearish Acceleration over time $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/DVd6x3rov2 https://t.co/CyzS4wrzQI”
“#BTC The Four Year Cycle has prevailed $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/2UXa9XGbdE”
“#BTC Welcome to green July $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/4q1NqiM3p8 https://t.co/8jT5fusiAW”
“2022 $USDC Dominance history has repeated... The green circled retest has been successful, enabling upside and thus Macro Risk-Off behaviour from investors since May, negatively impacting BTC's price since then After all, Bitcoin's price was at ~$74000 in May and most recently price dropped into $58000 More, USDC Dominance has Monthly Closed above its Macro Downtrend (red), on the cusp of confirming a new Macro Uptrend To fully confirm the breakout, USDC Dominance will be dipping into the Downtrend as part of a post-breakout retest During this period of downside, Bitcoin's price will likely enjoy a relief rally (green July) However once the USDC Dominance post-breakout retest of the Macro Downtrend is complete, upside for USDC Dom will once again emerge and Bitcoin's price will drop in response #BTC $BTC #USDC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Red June confirmed Green July under way $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/EsboRYNSlJ https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”