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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
72
5 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
20.0%
7 correct / 28 incorrect · 37 neutral
Avg return / call
-4.40%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-316.7%
Equal stake on all 72 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-4.75%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (13) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 47% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 13.8% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −337.8% | 3 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -4.75% | 0 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
150 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC Bitcoin has had macro price action clusters develop throughout the entire Bear Cycle, with fake-breakouts If you believe the bottom is in, that's absolutely fine But in that case, Bitcoin will need to sustain itself at these highs to confirm that that bias is worth holding And the reality is that Bitcoin technically, as per 4 Year Cycle tendencies, could have the time until the 31st of December 2026 to perform a Bear Market low That's a lot of time And if this is a Bear Market Relief Rally then time will likely verify this move, because strength isn't sustainable in Bear Cycles $BTC #Bitcoin”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.75 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · stated
“#BTC What Bitcoin has taught us over the years is that it will produce periods of under-performance as part of mean-reversion before transitioning into over-performance That over-performance also mean reverts with price transitioning back into under-performance Bitcoin is now experiencing its strongest ever Bear Market August September tends to be a typically bearish month for Bitcoin in Bear Markets It's tempting to think September will be also bullish because of an unusually bullish August But what if September just plays out as the normal bearish month it typically is, as part of mean reversion from current over-performance to under-performance once again? $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC One of the things to consider on this recent Bitcoin ascent: Can it reclaim the 21-week EMA (green) as support? In Bull Markets, naturally this EMA figures as a support However, in Bear Markets this EMA tends to act as resistance or even a failed retesting region if price overextends too much to the upside For Bitcoin to maintain its bullish strength, price would need to Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA and successfully retest it as support Because otherwise, if BTC fails the EMA retest and turns this 21-week EMA back into a new resistance, it will replicate the early 2026 Relief Rally and revert to continuing its Downtrend Generally, Bitcoin needs to confirm a breakout beyond its Macro Downtrend to confirm a new Macro Uptrend for Bitcoin At the moment, price is still forming Macro Lower Highs And in fact, Bitcoin would need to reclaim as support both the 21-week EMA (green) and the 50-week EMA (purple) to finally invalidate the Macro Lower Highs which history suggests could be too tall of an order to do at this moment in the cycle $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin reached the 50-Month EMA (purple) and is even overextending beyond it at this time But in doing so, Bitcoin is pressing deeper and deeper into the very major resistance (blue) that the historical 2022 fractal suggested price would reject from The 50-Month EMA delineates the bottom of the major resistance, confluent with the February/March 2026 lows and envelops the 2024 Monthly candle-bodied highs A Monthly Close below the 50-Month EMA would probably be bearish for Bitcoin because it would confirm that this resistance will be the general ceiling for price at this moment in the cycle Whereas Bitcoin would need to clear this resistance and/or reclaim the 50-Month EMA as support in an effort to try to start building the foundations to breaching the Macro Lower Highs The Monthly Close will be pivotal $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin will need to rally a lot more that what it has produced thus far if price is to invalidate the "weakening support" idea At the moment, technicals are pointing to $60k as a weakening macro support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/jYqcE6WzUg https://t.co/Wyu52KkNzA”
“#BTC History suggests Bitcoin is approaching a resistance area it won't be able to breach at this very moment in the market cycle $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin will try to squeeze you into position you never planned on building at these price levels Which is why it's never worth FOMOing on a green day If you must FOMO - do so on a red day $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is rejecting from the Lower High (black) A little lower and BTC will go back to treating the 200-week SMA (orange) as resistance $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/wrkJQJs0aB https://t.co/B9FXSuvtEe”
“#BTC Bitcoin has formed yet another Lower High on this latest advance, rejecting from the newfound black multi-week downtrend line $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/aqEUo2fnjL https://t.co/QLtzarwGqz”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the ~$63k level (orange horizontal) which technically positions price for a bearish retest of this level Of course, price is pressing beyond this level right now But at the same time Bitcoin is finding resistance at the 200-week SMA (orange) as well as the newfound Lower High (black) where price upside wicked into A Weekly Close below the orange horizontal later this week would likely confirm the bearish retest and a rejection from the 200-week SMA is how BTC would get there $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC With "limited relief-focused upside" in July having concluded and Bitcoin being in multi-week Lower Highs ever since... Turning the 200-week SMA into new resistance would be the confirmation to set up additional downside to perform a deeper downside deviation below the SMA in search of the final Bear Market bottoming out formation $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the orange level, losing it as support As a result, price is technically positioned to turn this recently lost support into new resistance A rejection from $63220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58000-$6600 Range (blue-blue) $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Aside from the earlier mentioned signs of weakness, here's another one: Yet another candle-bodied Lower High has developed More and more downtrends = mounting weakness $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/WSojO0KV0U https://t.co/DLZcF4jf1s”
“#BTC Let's see how the Bitcoin Weekly Candle closes A Weekly Close below the orange level would likely set price up for a breakdown Which would be interesting timing as the second half of August in a Bear Market year tends to be bearish $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/jnw88jSmbh https://t.co/DLZcF4jMR0”
“#BTC Of course, Bitcoin has downside wicked below the orange $63k level consistently over the past few weeks And so technically, a similar downside wick could also occur this week But what's been equally consistent is the weakening rebounds from orange and also the fact that Bitcoin tends to rollover in the second half of August in Bear Market years A bearish Weekly Close below the orange level would just confirm the already existing technical and seasonal weakness $BTC #Bitcoin”