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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 3 more calls to rank
Scored calls
12
3 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
71.4%
5 correct / 2 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
+2.70%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
+32.4%
Equal stake on all 12 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+3.03%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (69) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 17% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 73.8% | 76 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −24.9% | 82 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +3.03% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
14 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwM”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 39.1% |
27 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.29 | 79 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price: • Realized price: $53K • 155-day realized: $72K • 2-year realized: $86K A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup. https://t.co/CoyyEcj9eY”
“@chewchewtrade Up indeed https://t.co/yvKxlCeVRk”
“@teslageordie Yes, I already called the end of the bear market in this Sep 1 tweet (no guarantees of course, just my opinion): https://t.co/h3FjseWyob”
“@seth_fin Yes that is a green dot !🟢 https://t.co/XLXf6rp0Tx”
“@bitharington Indeed, btc did not go below realized price this bear. I was wrong because I thought it would, based on last 3 bear markets. So IMO bitcoin now tracks a scenario that we discussed before: "bull has been weak so bear might be shallow" https://t.co/2fDKk3AwLx”
“@MarcusBurelius Haha bitcoin regaining S2F (250k-1m range) .. this halving cycle .. would be max pain!”
“@offlinerob IMO the cyclical nature of bitcoin is more about halving cycles. Every halving cycle BTC finds a new (ave) level. Where the tops & bottoms have been been and will be is less relevant, or at least stock-to-flow says nothing about tops and bottoms. 2026-2028 top would be max pain.”
“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience https://t.co/uTLudDqtW1”
“You are mixing up valuation and price. My view is that both are true, valuation (based on fundamentals like scarcity, S2F) is 250k-1m range, but price can differ. Right now price is much lower than value and indeed might go lower from here (below realized). So bitcoin is undervalued but can still go lower.”
“@SwissHodler @CryptoYGK Harsh, but that is indeed what the chart seems to imply: no long term ETH/BTC uptrend, and no more ETH/BTC bull market pump&dump ...”
“Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, is in bear now ... is the complete implosion of altcoins IMO. Take ETH for example: -70% from its 2021 top and almost back to its 2017 top 📉IMO shitcoins are done, lesson learned, expensive but worth it. https://t.co/scNCGl9ArW”
“@BREAM_21 Apart from S2F model/article (which is more serious), I give my opinion ("IMO") on many things on X, and indeed I am not always right, I don't have a crystal ball!! Now 2026 has 7 months to go, >$250k unlikely but let's see. I do expect >$250k for this halving cycle 2024-2028.”
“@tomtomcoin1 This halving cycle has 2 years to go. So let's wait and see, BTC might make a new all time high next 2 years. Original bitcoin thesis (peer to peer / no central server, solution for debasement / fixed 21m supply) still intact. Crypto (shitcoins) is an ill-informed mistake IMO.”