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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
89
Top 11% · #3 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
26
0 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
71.4%
10 correct / 4 incorrect · 12 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
+0.16%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
+4.0%
Equal stake on all 26 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.14%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (76) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 8% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 71.5% | 94 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.8% | 97 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.14% | 58 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
51 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@RepThomasMassie”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 59.3% |
48 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.31 | 82 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“US debt will hit 1 QUADRILLION dollars by 2070. That's 1,000 trillion dollars. Growing at 7.6% per year, that's $87,685 added every second. Interest alone is now $981 billion per year. #Bitcoin is undervalued.”
“Bitcoin is so cheap right now. It won’t last.”
“You can still buy 34k Bitcoin for just a couple billion fiat dollars. Early. https://t.co/JlGbkYuCmV”
“@chamath @theallinpod You’re right. Better sell all your Bitcoin ASAP.”
“@RichardByworth Strategy’s average price per BTC is the new floor.”