Raoul Pal

“Shorter terms, BTC has broken the downtrend vs NDX... and put in some perfect DeMark lows. (You can get those on Trading View - DeMark 9-13...I love DeMark). 2/ https://t.co/EL0cNbesAz”

“My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co/EvwnVW2q03”

“for the first time, all of this thinking can be found in one place. My first book, The Everything Code is out Nov 3rd. You can pre-order it now: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl”

“Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it.”

“Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions. https://t.co/KxTnbfs1QH”

“Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions. https://t.co/KxTnbfs1QH”

“This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation https://t.co/ih4nBuPh9J”

“https://t.co/XlamGJSU77”

“If you want the full version of where my head is at, it’s all here: https://t.co/XlamGJSU77”

“Everything I just described is part of the frameworks I have spent years building. The Everything Code maps debasement. The Exponential Age maps the acceleration of our world. The Economic Singularity is where they both lead. If you want to understand why I hold through all of it, you can go deeper on all of them at: https://t.co/xRbqMfGgLE”

“When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.”

“@GlyphOfHermes BTC has had numerous down 80% cycles but a secular bear market is unlikely at this stage but it will happen when adoption slows”

“@ThinkingUSD Great post.”

“Forget UBI. The answer is Universal Basic Equity… and it’s humanity’s pension plan for the post-AGI world... The Economic Singularity is coming faster than people think and the default question is how humans make money in a world that doesn’t really need them anymore. The default answer is UBI, which is transfer payments from a state, funded by taxing an AI economy that nation states can neither see nor keep up with. It’s a 20th century answer to a 21st century problem and it’s broken before it even starts. Agents are becoming the dominant user of the internet, not humans. Your AI is becoming your entire front end UX. The clicks economy is dying everywhere except where humans pay to feel something - clothing, travel, luxury, experiences, culture. Agents run on crypto rails because nothing else works. The dollar doesn’t fractionalise below a cent, settlement isn’t instant, permissions are required, jurisdictions matter. Stablecoins handle the dollar leg and native tokens handle the rest. The biggest users of DeFi in five years won’t be humans farming yield… it’ll be agents managing treasuries, swapping, earning and spending at machine speed. Capital formation has already shown its new shape and it came from the most unexpected place. Memecoins. Everyone wrote them off as a casino but they were a prototype. Instant capital formation around the attention of an idea, raised by entities without legal personhood, settled in seconds. That is the template agent economies will use to fund themselves. And it’s not just agents... Robots will run on the same rails, with zk permissions issued from our wallets as the source of truth, because biometrics are far too flawed for that role Open source code itself gets tokenized and finally captures the value it creates, instead of being monetized through bolted-on services and subscriptions. Proof of humanhood becomes the trust layer that lets us release agents into the world without society collapsing under synthetic noise. Identity, authentication, verification, permissioning, all of it migrates onto the same substrate. So when you zoom out, the L1s aren’t just settling agent transactions but settling the entire coordination layer of the new economy… agents, robots, humans, code, capital, identity and trust. Every contract, every treasury, every permission, every stake. Open source finally captures the value it creates, at scale, for the first time, and truly vast value accrues to the coordination layer because everything routes through it. Which brings us to the actual answer to the Economic Singularity… Universal Basic Equity. Anyone on earth with a phone and an internet connection can buy a stake in the substrate that the new economy runs on. No KYC walls, no accreditation rules, no jurisdiction, no employer, no state, no permission. The first homogenous, permissionless, globally fractionalisable claim on the productive infrastructure of the world. It's not a slogan but a structural fact about how blockchains actually work. This is their purpose. Wealth comes from owning the substrate. Income comes from being human, because attention and experience remain the irreducible currency of culture, community and love. Abundance of goods and services from AI handles the cost of living. Taxing data center electricity use solves the tax issue. Four legs of a stool that holds up the post-singularity human world. So… just buy the fucking tokens. Bitcoin if you want pure store of value, a basket of the major L1s if you want the coordination layer. 10% of your earnings, every month, for a decade. You'll be wealthy and protected from the changes to come. Crypto is going to $100trn in the next 6 to 8 years and well beyond that after. You can choose to invest in your own economic disruption, or get left behind by it. And if you’re worried about timing the cycle… …adjust your time horizon. This is humanity’s pension plan. It's all so absurdly fucking obvious...”