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@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
16
Top 84% · #19 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
140
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.7%
71 correct / 69 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.03%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-3.7%
Equal stake on all 140 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-0.05%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (33) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 31% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 49.8% | 45 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −10.8% | 39 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.05% | 12 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
324 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC "Any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance" This has now happened The necessary technical milestone has been achieved Which technically indicates that the majority of the anticipated move has already happened $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/wZgGrPyIyv https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 96.4% |
85 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.11 | 9 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“#BTC Indeed, Bitcoin repeated 2014 Macro Triangle history where ~$82500 almost picture-perfectly served as a the ceiling for the Relief Rally from earlier this year Since then, price has continued its Macro Downside in search of the next consolidation cluster (orange) in this Bear Market Of course, the final consolidation will take place at the Bear Market Bottom At this moment, price is likely in a transitional phase where it finds itself in between such clusters That is, Bitcoin has broken down from the cluster that developed just below the Macro Triangle base for this cycle And now, Bitcoin is on the cusp of continuing into a brand new lower cluster Therefore Bitcoin could hang around $60k this Summer as part of turning February/March lows into new resistance But afterwards price would likely breakdown again to transition into one of the very final consolidation clusters of this Bear Cycle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC The Bull Market EMA crossover indeed preceded macro downside over time And history suggests that the downside is not yet over $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/0oxXmy5IWV https://t.co/NZvrheCeid”
“#BTC Bitcoin is showing initial signs of rejection from the 50-Month EMA (purple), closely mimicking 2022 historical price tendencies at this very moment in the cycle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/gR5K0hIQBk https://t.co/tMHSdojFiJ”
“#BTC And just like that - Bitcoin has reached the 50 Month EMA (purple) as anticipated late last month $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/cfOY3QVeyO https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Bitcoin is building on its Summer relief rally right on cue, reaching $65k most recently $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/NlR3tPkgUc https://t.co/n72n10p74a”
“#BTC The 200-week SMA (orange) continues to act as support in the short-term This is the second consecutive week that price has been holding the SMA as support $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/ZU8MV04MQ1 https://t.co/uyWh1jY9cC”
“#BTC The 50-Month EMA (purple) represents the ~$66000 price point for Bitcoin $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/zefkSbMwpq https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC History has repeated itself for Bitcoin The EMA crossover indeed preceded additional downside $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/rnkmYwH8vS https://t.co/NZvrheCeid”
“During this Summer Relief Rally... Bitcoin will rally high enough to convince you that the Bear Market is over And then it will resume its downtrend $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
“„These are already good prices for Bitcoin for the next Bull Run” is emerging as quite the popular narrative right now The reality is that Bitcoin has only just scratched the very surface of its macro bargain area $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin is currently successfully retesting the 200-week SMA (orange) as support To reiterate the point from the previous post: The SMA could act as support in the short-term to enable limited upside relief this July before failing as support mid-term $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/o4A9x9splx https://t.co/AzqEvvnIhg”
“#BTC Bitcoin is repeating Summer 2022 history In June 2022, Bitcoin broke down from the 50-Month EMA In July 2022, Bitcoin turned the EMA into new resistance And in August 2022, Bitcoin finally dropped to the same price where June ended and July began There's a good chance the Summer 2022 playbook will repeat during this Summer 2026 $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin tends to often enjoy a Green July But then comes Red August Bitcoin was only ever able to produce meaningful upside in August during Bull Market Peak years of 2013, 2017, 2021 In the Bull Market peak year of 2025, Bitcoin actually produced -6% downside Whereas in Bear Market years, August would produce -17% downside in 2014, -9% in 2018 and -13% in 2022 $BTC #Bitcoin”