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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 6 more calls to rank
Scored calls
9
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
60.0%
3 correct / 2 incorrect · 4 neutral
Avg 24h return / call
+0.15%
Avg return per call (24 hour horizon)
Following every call
+1.4%
Equal stake on all 9 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
+0.53%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (66) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 22% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 66.5% | 75 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −5.1% | 75 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.53% | 78 | 25% |
By month resolved · 24 hours horizon
4 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 38.5% |
13 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.26 | 75 | 25% |
90 days · 24h
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”