Loading…
@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
39
Top 61% · #14 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
15
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
60.0%
6 correct / 4 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 24h return / call
+0.26%
Avg return per call (24 hour horizon)
Following every call
+3.9%
Equal stake on all 15 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.31%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (59) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 20% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 61.0% | 61 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −6.8% | 76 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.31% | 64 | 25% |
By month resolved · 24 hours horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat) ✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line) ✅RSI > 50 (trend is up) ✅QE restarted Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀 https://t.co/kU0nUJXtdW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 37.0% |
21 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.16 | 67 | 25% |
All time · 24h
“8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.”
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”
“✅ below 200w moving average (black line) 🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ... https://t.co/U4QoTaNBNy”