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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
89
Top 11% · #3 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
26
0 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
71.4%
10 correct / 4 incorrect · 12 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
+0.16%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
+4.0%
Equal stake on all 26 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.14%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (76) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 8% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 71.5% | 94 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.8% | 97 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.14% | 58 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
12 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Remember the Wheel of Shitcoin Samsara. Everything flows to Bitcoin in the end.”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 59.3% |
48 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.31 | 82 | 25% |
All time · 1h
“@MDBitcoin How can anyone not be bullish on Bitcoin?”
“@bitcoin_dawg How can anyone not be bullish on Bitcoin?!”
“@Dannyseabird It was foretold.”
“It’s far more probable that nothing happens because no one cares about BIP110 and you were misled by a few. It’s far more likely that the 110 chain forks off and 1) the first block is invalidated by F2Pool or 2) the hashrate behind it shuts off within the first 24 hrs because they can’t bear the losses. Then everyone moves on with their lives because now they have learned firsthand how Bitcoin works.”
“@APompliano Gold will rotate into Bitcoin too.”
““But the instrument stops working as intended.” I can’t speak on Saylor’s behalf, but I believe that is the intention. Below par = no new issuance. Again, I think it’s an elegant design. It’s a self-repairing mechanism. When STRC isn’t at par: effective yield goes up, there is buy pressure from captain gain seekers, and no new obligations incurred.”
“I will be bullish enough to compensate for the bears. https://t.co/MeChjkFtUt”
“The liquid AI money will seek out Bitcoin. Fixed 21M supply vs infinite dilution. Global adoption, halvings, ETFs. Not earnings or AI capex. Low correlation. Not gold either. It took decades to reach these levels and it’s still not that far off ATH. Bitcoin still hasn’t had its run up yet and is massively undervalued.”
“There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.”
“It’s quiet. Too quiet. Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is in its most bullish setup ever. Plan accordingly.”
“@chamath @theallinpod You’re right. Better sell all your Bitcoin ASAP.”