Loading…
@rektcapital · Crypto Investor/Analyst Writes RC Newsletter: https://t.co/pFp14Jbs2r Follow for level-headed insights on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
3
Top 97% · #18 of 18 ranked
Scored calls
71
5 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
36.6%
26 correct / 45 incorrect · 0 neutral
Avg return / call
-4.43%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
-314.3%
Equal stake on all 71 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-4.77%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (13) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 46% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 32.4% | 0 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −337.8% | 3 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -4.77% | 0 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
148 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“#BTC The upcoming Monthly Candle Close is slowly approaching And as things stand Bitcoin has only rallied +14.5% from the ~$60k historical demand area That's a far cry from previous rebounds which is a sign of progressively weakening support over time $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/9K4cgPJQNl https://t.co/Hu8UEadXjI”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
81 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.75 | 0 | 25% |
90 days · stated
“Looks like #BTC is rejecting from the 50-Month EMA $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/lzyma7Z5cQ”
“#BTC Bitcoin will likely go up for as long as needed to convince as many people as possible of a new Bull Run beginning And then it will pullback to continue its Bear Market $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has indeed picked up in its price action in the second half of July History tends to repeat itself $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/3Q7qTjnJTO https://t.co/n72n10p74a”
“It makes sense that $USDC Dominance is now in the process of retesting the early 2026 highs into new support (blue) While Bitcoin is treating the general area of February 2026 lows as resistance The inverse correlation is clear More, the blue level for #USDC Dominance is confluent with its Macro Downtrend (red) Successful retest here would enable further upside for USDC Dominance (Macro Risk-Off) #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin springs from the June lows into Green July in an effort to confirm the 50-Month EMA (purple) into new resistance A Monthly Close below the 50 EMA would likely set up a Red August to fully complete the 2022 Summer Fractal $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/82UFm3JagR https://t.co/5JhfpTAvtn”
“#BTC Bitcoin is showing initial signs of rejection from the 50-Month EMA (purple), closely mimicking 2022 historical price tendencies at this very moment in the cycle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/gR5K0hIQBk https://t.co/tMHSdojFiJ”
“#BTC Indeed, the 200-week SMA is acting as unreliable resistance as well, because Bitcoin has Weekly Closed above the SMA Technically, that now means that this dip is a retest attempt to try reclaim the SMA back into support Again, the SMA will likely act as unreliable support and resistance in the short-term But the macro perspective suggests price will try to get as close as possible to the 50-Month EMA (~$66k) this July So for Bitcoin to be able to do that, the 200-week SMA will need to somehow briefly act as support at some point to facilitate that additional relief rally into the general ~$66k area before breaking down from the 200 SMA in August, for example $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Bitcoin has deviated below the 200-week SMA, proving how unreliable a support this SMA can be In saying that, it's important to also mention that the 200-week SMA can also act as an unreliable resistance in the early phases of such a macro deviation Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside After that and over time however, Bitcoin would once again breakdown from the 200-week SMA to perform a deeper macro deviation below it to search of the final Bear Market bottom $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC Red June Green July Red August This is what Bitcoin price history suggests Bitcoin could possibly see some downside wicking below the new Monthly Open in early July But history suggests price should be able expand to the upside as the month progresses $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC With the new June Monthly Close just around the corner... It's becoming increasingly likely that Bitcoin will close below the 50-Month EMA and likely bearish retest it into new resistance in July and reject in August This cycle has repeated 2022 tendencies very closely thus far and looks like that will continue throughout the Summer $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC This is still the game plan for the rest of the Summer Once June Monthly Closes, we'll know from which price July will be able to potentially spring into a post-breakdown relief rally Macro-wise, this is still looking very 2022-esque whereby any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance $BTC #Bitcoin”
“#BTC At this stage, if June Monthly Closes just like this at $62k then that would confirm the breakdown from the 50-Month EMA So it July turns into a green month, then that could see price turn the 50 EMA into new resistance Then August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation $BTC #Bitcoin”