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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 6 more calls to rank
Scored calls
9
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
2 correct / 2 incorrect · 5 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.08%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-0.7%
Equal stake on all 9 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
+0.05%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (56) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 22% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 64.5% | 75 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −2.8% | 72 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.05% | 47 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$85k bitcoin .. clear skies ahead Interactive chart and data (100% free): https://t.co/H7ICfIauUt https://t.co/clFYH09gXq https://t.co/3vT6l5i2MO”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 46.2% |
28 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.06 | 56 | 25% |
90 days · 4h
“Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k). Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) 🚀 Interactive chart: https://t.co/OrlNcbTbZf https://t.co/ok7HnDVcL7”
“Bitcoin closed August at $78,571 - Above 200 week MA $65k - Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k - All realized prices are increasing again - Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%) - Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41) IMO the bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here. https://t.co/h5IcFoBJG6”
“Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR. https://t.co/2JlDHB4Jjq”
“@kryptosopus Indeed, and 20x from here would be the same as bitcoin growth of the last 10 years (from $3k to $60k), not unrealistic at all IMO.”