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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
79
Top 21% · #5 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
25
1 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
55.6%
10 correct / 8 incorrect · 7 neutral
Avg return / call
+0.54%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
+13.4%
Equal stake on all 25 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.73%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (74) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 4% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 55.6% | 70 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −20.1% | 88 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.73% | 76 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
10 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@MDBitcoin How can anyone not be bullish on Bitcoin?”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 63.0% |
52 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.13 | 79 | 25% |
All time · stated
“The fiat system is failing. Their only job is to convince you everything is fine. It’s not. It can’t be fixed. By the time everyone sees it and buys Bitcoin, BTC will be insanely expensive. Buy bitcoin:native today.”
“It’s far more probable that nothing happens because no one cares about BIP110 and you were misled by a few. It’s far more likely that the 110 chain forks off and 1) the first block is invalidated by F2Pool or 2) the hashrate behind it shuts off within the first 24 hrs because they can’t bear the losses. Then everyone moves on with their lives because now they have learned firsthand how Bitcoin works.”
“Just a reminder that aside from capital flowing out to AI, there’s absolutely no structural reason for #Bitcoin to be down here. It’s just a self-fulfilling fear induced temporary bear market. Plan accordingly.”
“@APompliano Gold will rotate into Bitcoin too.”
“I remain bullish on Bitcoin.”
“The liquid AI money will seek out Bitcoin. Fixed 21M supply vs infinite dilution. Global adoption, halvings, ETFs. Not earnings or AI capex. Low correlation. Not gold either. It took decades to reach these levels and it’s still not that far off ATH. Bitcoin still hasn’t had its run up yet and is massively undervalued.”
“@BTCTimescom @Strive @_ALCPB I remain bullish.”
“Bitcoin is so cheap right now. It won’t last.”
“@RichardByworth Strategy’s average price per BTC is the new floor.”